Демография эпидемии ВИЧ/СПИД в России: текущая ситуация и возможные последствия
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Monogamous networks and the spread of sexually transmitted diseases

Ken T. D. Eames
Department of Zoology, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
Matt J. Keeling
Department of Biological Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK

Patterns of sexual mixing and heterogeneity in the number of sexual partners can have a huge effect on the spread of a sexually transmitted disease (STD). The sexual mixing network identifies all partnerships within a population over a given period and is a powerful tool in the study of such infections. Previous models assumed all links within the network to be concurrent active partnerships. We present a novel modelling approach in which we adapt the notion of a sexual contact network to a monogamous population by allowing the nature of the links to change. We use the underlying network to represent potential sexual partnerships, only some of which are active at any one time. Thus serial monogamy can be modelled while maintaining the patterns of mixing displayed by the population.

Author Keywords: Author Keywords: Pair-wise correlation model; Concurrency; Polygamy; Mixing patterns; Chlamydia

Демографические последствия эпидемии в РФ

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